By Chi Lo
This publication analyzes the post-subprime concern global from the worldwide, Asian and chinese language views. It dispels a number of the myths concerning the crisis's results on Asia and China; and exposes the gruesome fact of bailout guidelines and their distortion and hindering of the world's financial rebalancing attempt within the post-subprime period.
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However, bailouts breed moral hazard and obstruct the needed microeconomic consolidation in the system by keeping the excess capacity alive. So far, the global authorities have ignored this structural distortion on the grounds of the need to stabilise the global crisis. Countries such as China, in particular, should learn from this, since China has an inherent excess capacity problem with serious moral hazard in the system. There is also a risk of a ‘back to central planning’ mentality emerging in China in the post-subprime era.
Finally, I cannot envision an internationalised Chinese currency for another decade, if not longer, despite Beijing’s keen desire to push for it. China will simply not be ready for it for quite some time. indd 12 9/1/2010 3:30:06 PM 1 The Subprime Crisis Is Not a Normal Crisis In my view the subprime crisis is not a normal crisis, and so its recovery trajectory is going to be different from anything we have seen before. We are in uncharted territory, so history may not be an appropriate guide for how things will unfold in the post-subprime world.
But they are potential time bombs. indd 28 9/1/2010 3:30:19 PM Post-Subprime World Still Unbalanced 29 system of equity capital and restrict its ability to extend credit. The Americans have relaxed their accounting rules, making them generous enough to allow banks to sweep many losses under the carpet in the short term. But banks cannot hide the truth forever and wait for miracles. The Japanese made that mistake in the 1990s by trying to muddle through, only to end up with almost two decades of economic stagnation.