By The Economist Group
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Extra resources for The Economist - 24 February 2001
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8% early this month. 4% in the fourth quarter. Many economists expect growth of barely 1% in the first half of this year. Even without a recession, that would feel like a bumpy landing. So far, the main driver of the downturn has been the business sector. As profits have been squeezed and weaker sales have caused inventories to pile up, firms have started to trim their investment and production. Mr Greenspan is keen to portray the current slowdown as mild and short-lived. Firms have already started to slim their excess stocks, he argues, so the usual inventory correction should take place more rapidly than usual, allowing the economy to bounce back more swiftly.
The public tends to feel that if Brazil’s prisons are hell, so much the better. In fact, the jails serve as headquarters and training centres for the violent crime that afflicts the streets. While this week’s events are still fresh in the public mind, Brazil’s leaders should try to point that out. Copyright © 2007 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved. About sponsorship Argentina Unloved boffins Feb 22nd 2001 | BUENOS AIRES From The Economist print edition SCIENCE is important to Argentina.
When the question was put in Congress last week to Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, he replied “No”. Unfortunately, he said the same in September 1990, when it is now clear that a recession had already started. According to the latest survey by Blue Chip Economic Indicators, 95% of economists agree with Mr Greenspan: America is not sliding into recession. But this is less reassuring than it sounds. Economists rarely succeed in predicting recessions. Economic models are not much help for spotting turning-points in the cycle.