By A. Mason and M. Yamaguchi (Eds.)
Beginning premiums are shedding to ever-lower degrees world wide. Populations are growing to be extra slowly and, every so often, commencing to decline. fast inhabitants getting older has began within the West and components of Asia and is simply over the horizon in different places. The demographic adjustments, their financial implications, and attainable coverage responses are the subject material of this quantity. what is going to be the results on monetary functionality? How can be inspired to marry and feature little ones? Can academic reform bring about a extra efficient younger exertions strength supporting to offset their meager numbers? Can exertions industry reform expand the paintings lifetime of older employees with no destructive the pursuits of others? How may still the social safeguard internet that helps the aged evolve in ways in which are either reasonable and sustainable? The papers during this quantity draw on overseas event to deal with those matters, yet emphasize the adventure of Japan the rustic with the worlds oldest inhabitants. It contains participants comparable to: Noriko Aoki, Akira Kawaguchi, Allen Kelley, Wei Huang, Robert Hutchens, Tomoko Kinugasa, Andrew Mason, Naoki Mitani, Takashi Oshio, Robert Schmidt, and Mitoshi Yamaguchi.
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Extra resources for Population Change, Labor Markets, and Sustainable Growth: Towards a New Economic Paradigm
Example text
Trends in the growth of the working-age population (WAgr) enhanced (Y/N)gr change six times in the first two periods but not a single time since. In short, the prevailing pattern throughout the world of a positive and strong net translations impact between the 1960s and the 1970s, followed by small and even negative net impacts in the latter two periods, has been driven to date largely by initially strong but eventually declining growth rates of the working-age population. Again, the notable exception is in Africa where, subject to the ravages of HIV-AIDS, such a period may lie ahead as the countries of that continent pass through the various phases of the demographic transition.
55) Note: The sample consists of a panel of 86 countries and four time periods, 344 observations in all. Details of estimation are provided in Kelley and Schmidt (2001). * indicates significance at the 5% level. ** indicates the 1% level, 1- or 2-tail tests as appropriate. 54. 1 presents the empirical results from that study for our preferred modeling variant. These demographic coefficients are used for the remainder of this chapter to estimate 6 Briefly, the data comprise 86 countries and four growth periods spanning 1960–95, resulting in a panel with 344 observations.
1. Modeling population in development This section of the chapter applies the methodology developed in Chapter 2 to assess the impacts of a century of demographic change on economic growth. We first summarize the theory of the economic growth model; then review the empirics from our estimation; and finally estimate the impacts of demographic change on changes in per capita GDP growth. 1. 1), Y=Lgr ðLgr À Ngr Þ; ðY=NÞgr |fflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflffl{zfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflffl} þ |fflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflffl{zfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflffl} Productivity Component Translations Component ð3:1Þ which decomposes per capita output growth (Y/Ngr) into two components: an economic component (per-hour labor productivity growth, Y/Lgr), and an accounting or translations component (Lgr À Ngr), which converts output growth per labor hour into output growth per person (a possible welfare measure).