By Joseph F. Francois, Clinton R. Shiells
Utilized common Equilibrium (AGE) versions have confirmed to be the software of selection for interpreting the North American unfastened exchange contract (NAFTA). This assortment comprises crucial contributions to this burgeoning literature by means of a few of the prime practitioners within the box. It additionally includes an in depth examine survey, together with comparisons of version dimensions, behavioral gains, facts assets, coverage experiments, and major conclusions for coverage. the amount incorporates a variety of methodological advances in AGE modeling of exchange coverage.
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Additional info for Modeling Trade Policy: Applied General Equilibrium Assessments of North American Free Trade
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Services obviously dominate the production side of this economy, generating 63 percent of gross output and 77 percent of total value added. Manufacturing's share of gross output (31 percent) far exceeds its value-added share (19 percent) because of its higher degree of intermediate use. Demand includes imports, and these raise the overall share of manufactures while lowering that of services. S. 1. Structure of Production, Demand, Income, and Trade for the United States, 1988 (all figures in percentages) 5 6 M vi/vk 5 1 2 1 0 7 All Primary Food Processing Beverages Tobacco Textiles Apparel Leather Paper Chemical Rubber NonMetMinProd Iron and Steel NonFerMetals UoodMetal Prod NonElecMach ElectricalMach TransportEqp Other Manufact 5 3 1 0 1 1 0 2 2 2 1 1 1 3 2 4 5 1 4 2 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 1 0 0 2 1 3 2 1 6 6 1 0 1 2 0 3 4 2 1 2 1 4 3 6 7 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 All Manufactures 31 19 Construction Electricity Commerce TransptCommun FinlnsRlEstate OtherServices 7 4 11 5 4 13 14 24 16 33 9 15 6 6 All Services 63 77 48 28 Economy-wide 100 100 100 100 11 Mu/M 12 Mm/M 13 Er/E 14 Ec/E 15 Eu/E 16 Em/E 10 18 4 7 30 29 75 85 70 11 9 20 0 0 0 15 5 10 87 47 88 6 51 8 0 0 0 7 2 4 9 3 0 1 1 0 0 3 8 4 1 3 1 3 6 11 16 2 9 56 2 130 1 149 0 41 1 294 5 312 2 137 1 211 4 109 2 240 2 298 3 1073 2 403 4 485 6 310 17 359 12 274 7 154 8 4 1 9 4 1 3 5 15 14 3 16 3 5 14 13 17 8 20 5 9 4 10 35 67 9 12 13 17 19 16 13 24 33 31 39 72 84 81 94 90 96 98 33 91 88 95 86 68 67 87 88 57 90 18 12 11 3 7 2 0 64 3 9 4 12 24 27 11 5 39 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 5 8 4 2 2 2 3 7 4 0 2 7 6 2 8 4 3 82 80 83 100 55 60 16 72 84 84 58 90 17 67 45 76 59 73 13 13 14 0 34 12 47 20 12 10 37 7 67 27 41 13 38 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 6 2 0 11 28 37 8 4 6 5 4 15 6 14 11 3 2 46 63 71 170 10 20 78 18 0 5 69 24 0 7 9 4 7 0 0 10 0 11 0 0 0 4 6 2 1 0 29 0 18 3 0 0 100 0 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 622 42 258 173 43 366 0 0 0 20 267 2 4 100 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 100 240 5 13 81 15 0 4 79 16 0 5 7 E/X 8 9 M/D Mr/M ooo 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 10 Mc/M 55 180 28 ooo 4 E 3 0 4 ooo 3 D 2 0 2 ooo 2 VA 2 0 3 OOO 1 X 1 Agriculture 2 Mining 3 Petroleum Notes: Columns 1-5 contain totals, and columns 6-16 contain denominator-weighted averages.
S. Department of Commerce and Canadian Department of External Affairs Multisector Models Note: Brown's model is not included in this table because it is not calibrated to the actual world economy. 28 Introduction A fourth alternative specification of second-stage preferences is to assume that imports and competing domestic goods are perfect substitutes. In the first three alternative specifications, it was implicitly assumed that imports and domestic goods are imperfect substitutes, so that a 1 percent change in the relative price of imports would result in a less than 1 percent change in the relative price of domestic substitutes.
For the United States, by contrast, effects should prove to be relatively mild. The largest gains for the United States will follow from liberalization of Mexican NTBs. The greatest benefit may, therefore, be the opportunity to secure a relatively prosperous and politically stable southern neighbor at little cost. NAFTA may also strike at the economic roots of migration from Mexico to the United States. An important difference between NAFTA as it may actually come to pass and the policy experiments conducted by the AGE modeling projects presented here is one of timing.